How could the current trade war impact the real estate market?

Direct estimated impact in main macroeconomic indicators

Tariffs announced by the Trump Administration on April have caused a drop in global growth expectations. The most recent IMF reference forecast projects a fall in global real GDP growth from prior estimate of 3,3 % to 2,8% in 2025 and from 3,3 % to 3,0 % in 2026 (a cummulative downgrade of -0,8 pp).

This fall affects advanced economies, emerging markets and developing countries with different intensity, depending on their economic momentum and the supply shock imposed by the new tariffs, being overall more damaging for the United States and Asia (especially China) and less damaging for Europe. For Latin America and the Caribbean, the growth forecast is downgraded -0,5 pp down to 2,0 % in 2025 and -0,3 pp down to 2,4 % in 2026, largely due to Mexico, where demand was weaker than expected in late 2024 and the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States is higher than in other countries of the region.

At the same time, global headline inflation is expected to decline at a slower pace than stated by prior IMF estimates, reaching 4,3 % in 2025 and 3,6 % in 2026 (vs. January estimate of 4,2 % in 2025 and 3,5 % in 2026), due to relevant upward revisions in advanced economies, especially in the United States, that offset the slight downward revisions in emerging and developing countries. In Latin America and the Caribbean, inflation is expected to decrease by -0,3 pp as the upwards revisions for Bolivia, Brazil and Venezuela are offset by downwards revisions in all other countries. Likewise, in Asia expected inflationary pressures are soft and the IMF reviews its projection downwards by -0,5pp.

Estimated impact in monetary policy

Despite a slowdown in the decline of inflation of advanced economies, it is still expected that both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will continue to reduce interest rates. The pace at which both central banks apply the reductions, however, is likely to differ due to their different economic momentums.

Headline inflation in the European Union reached 2,4 % in 2024, declining faster from the 2022 peak than the United States, which reached 3,0 % in 2024 driven by above-average private consumption. While in the EU inflation is expected to reach its target during 2025, in the US a stanflation scenario is feared as prices resist to fall despite weaker demand in 2025 and tariffs generate new upward tensions in prices.

As a result, the IMF estimates the federal funds rate to decline to 4,0 % at the end of 2025 and reach the long-term equilibrium of 2,9 % by the end of 2028.In the European Union, the IMF reference forecast expects policy rate to reach the 2,0 % target by mid-2025. Indirect impacts

Additionally to the direct supply shock that the announced tariffs generate in international trade, there are other indirect impacts that might drag growth in affected economies, related to policy uncertainty, trade wars and geopolitical tensions that undermine investor and consumer confidence.

Potential impact in real estate

Real estate is a pro-cyclical sector and an estimated global growth economic slowdown mixed with increased policy uncertainty might moderate aggregate real estate activity. However, the impact will differ by countries depending on their economic momentum as well as the magnitude of the tariff hit, and some markets might seize opportunities for investment.

First, tariffs have a direct impact on the cost of imported materials, which increases construction costs. The highest hit in overall construction cost could be expected to affect the United States, since it imports several construction materials from taxed countries and industries. This might generate an increase in real estate prices for new homes and a subsequent slowdown in local market activity, caused, on the one hand, by the aggravation of housing affordability that weakens demand, and on the other hand, by increased project costs for investors and industrial developers that might delay taking on new projects and reduce general construction activity in the region. In the meantime, Europe and other countries might strenghten their trade networks and try to benefit from cheaper third-party imports in these particular materials (although the free trade alteration will in all cases lead to sub-optimal exchanges). Due to policy uncertainty, it is yet to be seen whether this would be enough to offset potential retaliation of tariffs in other sectors that might cause an additional drag in the economy.

Second, tariffs have an impact on inflation that feeds the decoupling of monetary policies between countries. Inflationary pressures have proven to be stubborn in the United States during 2024 and these tariffs feed higher prices, which in turn might force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, making access to credit more expensive and difficult. On the contrary, the lower interest rates expected in the European Union during 2025 in combination with above-average private savings in the region and the ongoing recovery of households purchasing power might keep stimulating real estate demand.

Third, uncertainty and fluctuations in foreign exchange rate related to tariffs might impact investment decisions. In this context, investors might look at Europe as a more stable trustworthy partner, which together with aceptable growth prospects for 2026 based on signs of stronger consumption and a projected fiscal easing in Germany might attract foreign capital. Within Europe, Spanish real estate could continue to be an interesting destination for foreign investors given its lower relative prices, especially in the residential segment.

These tariffs have been argued by the Trump Administration to be a tool to reduce trade deficit in the United States, but this effect seems unlikely. According to economic theory, the increased price of imports imposed by US tariffs would imply a reduction in the demand of foreign goods in the United States, which would reduce trade deficit if exports remained unchanged. However, these effects disappear with the retaliation from other countries that impose tariffs of their own, hence decreasing exports from United States and eliminating the desired trade deficit reduction.

In the meantime, the geopolitical landscape is being reshaped and volatility in the markets is likely to remain high while negotiations are ongoing and trade is being rebalanced. In this context, real estate might continue to act as an alternative shed from uncertainty and inflationary pressures in certain regions, while in others it might suffer a slowdown.