Access to housing in Portugal: supply constraints at the centre of the imbalance

Access to housing remains one of today’s most significant socio-economic challenges. While its drivers are global, the way the pressure materialises varies by country. As part of our ongoing series on residential markets, Accumin focuses on Portugal, a market shaped by local constraints that reflect wider international trends.

In this analysis, Pedro Mestre, Director at PVW Tinsa by Accumin, examines the roots of the country’s housing shortage. The core issue is a sharp contraction in supply. Annual new housing completions fell from around 100,000 units between 2000 and 2010 to approximately 10,000 units per year over the following decade.

This gap is reinforced by structural supply-side constraints. Construction rules differ across municipalities and remain complex. New residential development is subject to a 23% non-deductible VAT. Construction costs have more than doubled, while the previous downturn significantly reduced the sector’s capacity.

At the same time, demand has intensified. Portugal’s population increased by around 400,000 people over the last ten years. International investment has expanded, with buyers from more than 90 nationalities attracted by its appeal for primary homes, second residences, short-term rentals and investment assets.

This imbalance has favoured Build to Sell developments, often aimed at higher-income buyers, over the development of a Build to Rent market, limiting rental options for local households.

In this context, access to reliable data and rigorous analysis is essential. At Accumin, we provide the clarity needed for developers, investors and public authorities to assess constraints, understand market dynamics and support a more transparent and efficient residential market.