Inisghts & Publications

Troostwijk Index 2025 (NL)

At Troostwijk, our annual index figures provide a forecast of expected cost increases for the coming year. These figures are based on anticipated changes in wage costs and the price trends of raw materials and goods. Once released, these predictions are fixed and will not change. However, if the actual price developments differ from our forecast, we will make automatic adjustments in the following year to balance any discrepancies.

The Troostwijk indexes reflect the long-term structural development of costs, filtering out cyclical fluctuations and the price spikes or drops influenced by geopolitical events as much as possible.


| **Annual predictions for 2024-2025** | **2024** | **2024** | **%** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Commercial and office buildings | 130.0 | 138.2 | +6.3% |
| Homes | 128.7 | 135.1 | +5.0% |
| Company inventory | 126.8 | 131.5 | +3.7% |

_2019 = 100_

###### **General Developments**

While 2024 was less turbulent than the previous two years, we still saw fluctuations in raw material markets. Prices surged in the first half of the year, only to decrease in the second half. Disappointing economic news from major global economies such as China and Europe added pressure on prices. In the Netherlands, a moderately performing economy and high interest rates contributed to a decline in construction and industrial production, particularly in the first half of 2024. This decline puts additional strain on prices for locally produced materials and goods.

Industrial production in the Netherlands has been under pressure since mid-2022, partly due to a slowdown in the German economy, one of the country’s key markets.

###### Wages and Cost increase

In 2024, higher wages played a significant role in the increase in construction costs and the production costs of inventory. For example, the construction sector saw an additional 7% wage increase, along with a fixed bonus of €150 for all employees. A similar trend was observed in the metal sector, a key indicator for inventory.

The metal sector's labour agreements are longer-term, with wages set to increase gradually by 9% between June 1, 2024, and December 31, 2025. Similarly, the Metal and Technology sectors will see a 10% wage increase, alongside a fixed bonus of €100, from April 1, 2024, to February 1, 2026.

For 2025, we expect construction and production costs to rise once again, driven by increasing wages. However, the outlook for 2025 is more optimistic, with improved economic prospects (GDP growth of +1.5%) and falling interest rates, which are expected to stimulate investment in both construction and industrial production. Prices for materials and raw materials are expected to stabilise or increase, reflecting long-term trends.

###### Energy, raw materials and materials

Energy prices continued to decrease throughout 2024, although they remained significantly higher than the levels seen in 2021. For example, natural gas prices were still over 60% higher in 2024 compared to 2021, and electricity prices remained approximately 80% higher. However, slight upward pressure on energy prices returned in the second half of 2024. Looking ahead, we expect energy prices to remain structurally higher compared to 2021.

Crude steel prices have been under pressure for some time, falling by around 15% in 2024. The decrease in global demand, particularly in construction and parts of the industry, has contributed to this trend. The lowest steel prices in eight years were recorded by the end of 2024. However, metals like aluminium and copper saw price increases in 2024. We expect metal prices to stabilize in 2025, with potential slight increases if global economic growth surpasses expectations.

Oil prices peaked above $90 in the first half of 2024 before dropping back to $75, largely due to decreased demand and the absence of production restrictions from oil-producing countries. The current geopolitical situation in the Middle East (e.g., the Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran conflict) introduces significant uncertainty in oil price predictions, with the potential for volatility.

In terms of building materials, 2024 saw a mixed picture. Materials like wood, where international competition plays a significant role, continued to see price declines that began in late 2023. On the other hand, materials produced primarily in the Netherlands, such as concrete and cement, stabilized in 2024 after sharp increases in 2023.

Finished and semi-finished steel products showed a downward trend in 2024, and this was also the case for concrete and cement. The fall in energy prices helped reduce costs for these products. As energy prices stabilise and labour costs continue to rise, we expect a stable to slightly higher pricing trend for 2025. The demand for building materials may increase slightly as construction activity picks up, leading to a moderate rise in material prices.

###### Wage costs

In 2025, wage growth will continue to outpace inflation. The construction and infrastructure sector has requested a 7% wage increase, and this will likely apply across other sectors as well. The wage agreements for Metalektro and Metal & Technology will remain in effect for 2025, with significant increases still expected. However, the pace of wage growth is expected to moderate in 2025, with an average wage increase of around 4% across the Netherlands.

For our index calculations, we have assumed a 7% wage increase in the construction sector and a 5% wage increase for other industries. As new wage agreements are confirmed, we will update our quarterly index figures.

###### Uncertainty

Geopolitical developments, government policies, and climate change continue to introduce uncertainty in 2025. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election is one key factor to watch. With the possibility of a second term for President Trump, concerns in Europe about his protectionist policies and the risk of new tariffs could influence prices, potentially creating additional cost pressures.

Trade conflicts, particularly between China and the West, continue to affect specific raw material markets. Additionally, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains a factor in energy pricing, especially regarding gas. Tensions in the Middle East could also lead to significant fluctuations in oil prices.

The Dutch government’s housing policies, aimed at stimulating construction, could increase the demand for building materials and labour, potentially driving up costs. Meanwhile, efforts to limit CO2 emissions may lead to higher production costs for the industry. On the positive side, investments in sustainable infrastructure could help lower costs over the long term.
Lastly, extreme weather events linked to climate change, such as floods, droughts, and hurricanes, could disrupt raw material production and supply chains, creating short-term price volatility.

###### Troostwijk quarterly index figures – Forecast 2025

To get a better picture of the actual price development, we advise you to follow our quarterly figures. We also point out that the index figures are general indexes and not specifically aimed at one type of real estate or sector. It is therefore wise to continue to follow price developments in (specific) submarkets. If you have any doubts about the value development, you can of course always contact Troostwijk Taxaties.

**Forecast quarterly index figures 2025**


| | **2024 – IV*** | **2025 – I** | **2025 – II** | **2025 – III** | **2025 – IV** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Commercial and office buildings | 131.8 | 133.7 | 135.0 | 137.0 | 138.2 |
| Homes | 128.9 | 131.3 | 132.1 | 134.3 | 135.1 |
| Company inventory | 128.3 | 129.6 | 130.5 | 130.9 | 131.5 |

'* final
Quarter IV 2019 = 100

_The Troostwijk quarterly index figures appear every quarter in the month preceding the new quarter for subscribers to the Index newsletter. And are placed online on the first working day of each quarter._

[Link to the original article in Dutch](https://www.troostwijk.nl/nieuws/troostwijk-index-2025/) 




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Tinsa IMIE Spain local markets Q4 2024 

The IMIE Local Markets statistics show the evolution of the unit market value of housing in each of the Autonomous Communities, provinces and capitals of Spain, based on the appraisals of finished free market housing carried out by the company in the period analyzed.

The appraisals of new and used housing carried out by Tinsa by Accumin reflect an acceleration in the increase of prices in the last quarter of the year. According to the IMIE Local Markets 4Q 2024 statistics, published today, the average value of housing increased by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter and 4.4% year-on-year.


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Tinsa IMIE Spain local markets Q3 2024 

Leave us your details to access the full report.

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The Tinsa IMIE Local Markets statistics for the third quarter of the year reveal a scenario of certain dynamism in prices compared to the stabilization of previous quarters. The average price of new and used housing in Spain rose by 3.1% year-on-year, to 1,804 €/m2, and by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, which maintains the momentum at levels close to the evolution of inflation.

Tinsa Mexico by Accumin launches a virtual IA assistant on its data platform 

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Tinsa Mexico by Accumin lanza un asistente virtual con IA en su plataforma de datos

Tinsa Mexico by Accumin has launched a new artificial intelligence assistant, freely accessible and based on an advanced language model, which allows written interaction with the company's data platform to obtain information about the local property market in a more direct and simple way.

We are immersed in an environment where data is relevant for decision-making, but it is not only important to collect it, but it is also important to process it, generate it properly and deliver it through different tools. This is why our digital ecosystem is made up of tools that offer different levels of value," continues Orozco de la Fuente.

The AI assistant allows consumers, researchers, analysts and professionals in the real estate sector to have a written dialogue with the platform and directly consult data of interest to the real estate market, such as returns in certain areas of the country and historical trends, among others.

In the first phase, the AI assistant will provide information focused on new construction activity, compiled quarterly for the cities of Mexico City, Monterrey, Guadalajara, Querétaro, Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Tulum.



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Tinsa IMIE Spain local markets Q2 2024

Residential prices rebound slightly in the second quarter within an environment of stabilization. The Tinsa IMIE Local Markets statistics for the second quarter put the increase in the average value of new and used housing in Spain at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, compared to the 0.1% recorded in the previous quarter. Year-on-year growth remains moderate at 3.1%.

Spanish shore housing report 2024

Partnering with MITERD to launch Spain’s first national energy efficiency certificate database

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Shore housing 2024 report

Explore the keys to the coastal real estate market in Spain with Tinsa's Shore housing 2024 report. This essential study will allow you to understand the current trends in prices, supply and demand in the main coastal areas, revealing opportunities and challenges in the context of constant change.

With updated data and in-depth analysis, this report addresses the impact of foreign investment, domestic buyer preferences and how pricing dynamics are shaping the second home market. 


on-geo Days 2024 – the event of the year attracts nearly 400 participants 

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Tinsa Spain IMIE local markets Q1 2024

The Tinsa IMIE Local Markets statistics for the first quarter of 2024 show that residential prices have remained stable in most areas, with more intense growth in municipalities with a greater tourist component and marked slowdowns in employment centres and their metropolitan areas. The average value of new and used housing in Spain is 3.3% higher than a year earlier, after increasing by 0.1% in the last quarter (since the fourth quarter of 2023). This is the lowest quarterly growth rate since the end of 2020.

ISO 27701 certification for the companies in Spain, Portugal and Morocco 

Tinsa Chile launches Incoin Plus

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X-ray of the real estate market 2023 and perspectives 2024 (Mexico)

In her participation in the virtual talk **"X-ray of the real estate market 2023 and perspectives 2024"** , Marisol Becerra, Director of Consulting at **Tinsa Mexico**, gave a recap of the real estate sector outlook in 2023:

- It is estimated that there is a demand for more than 450,000 homes per year, of which 270,000 are new and 202,000 are used.
- According to official figures from Infonavit, Fovisste, and banks, 311,000 loans have been issued by September 2023, representing a 3.5% annual decline.
- Regarding the agencies, commercial banks have played a more important role in housing placement, as follows: Infonavit (67%), banks (25%) and Fovissste (8%).
- More than 50% of the loans are generated in Mexico City, Jalisco, Nuevo León, the State of Mexico, and Querétaro.
- National delinquency rates remain at 5.1%.
- Regarding banks, all have attractive products, including sustainable green mortgages, but those that have granted the largest volume are BBVA, Santander, and Banorte.
- One thing that changed was the configuration of the segments, with the largest growth being the Medium and Residential segments. The Medium segment (housing between $1.1 and $2.4 million pesos) increased from 20.5% in 2015 to 23.9% in 2023, and the Residential segment (housing between $2.4 and $4.7 million pesos) increased from 7.6% in 2015 to 15.5% in 2023.
- Between 2015 and 2022, the residential market in Mexico contracted by 21%, with new home sales, in particular, decreasing by 33% and mortgage lending by 33%.
- The market size in Mexico City is nearly 2,000 registered units per month.
Mexico City has the highest average price for financed homes for sale, followed by Querétaro.
In Mexico City, after a long period of very static prices (19-22), new supply, above all, is driving the increase in values ​​per m2.
- The dynamism of the industrial market has impacted housing values ​​in Coahuila and Nuevo León.
- The tourist attraction of some states is also driving demand, and with it, added value. Quintana Roo, and especially the Riviera Maya and Tulum areas, despite the constant increase in supply, maintain good rates of absorption and increased sales values.
- Among the threats seen this year are inflation, lower disposable income and spending power, rising rates, and higher prices due to construction and financing costs.


Regarding trends, she commented that one of the main opportunities for solid growth in the real estate industry in Mexico lies in nearshoring, since "the relocation of companies that have arrived in Mexico generates significant opportunities for the entire real estate ecosystem. Today, we have statistics showing that more than 500 companies have established themselves in the country, driving demand for industrial space. But let's remember that housing follows employment, so once these industrial and labor hubs are triggered, all residential development and the industry in general are impacted."
"This phenomenon has already boosted industrial markets like Monterrey, Tijuana, Guanajuato, and Guadalajara, as well as emerging markets like Mérida, Toluca, Saltillo, and Juárez," she added.

- **[Original news link](https://www.tinsamexico.mx/panorama-del-sector-inmobiliario-en-2023/)**
- **[Radiografía 2024 (Spanish only)](https://www.tinsamexico.mx/#flipbook-df_37845/1/)**

Troostwijk Index 2024 (NL)

Agricultural land in Spain 2023

Theme White

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In this year's Troostwijk Index 2024, we provide insights into the price trends for commercial buildings, office spaces, residential properties, and business inventory. Our index figures offer guidance for updating insured values for the upcoming year.

######  General developments

The year 2023 has been another turbulent one, marked by significant fluctuations. Energy prices saw a sharp decline, while the raw materials and materials markets remained volatile. At the same time, wage growth reached its highest level in years. Notably, the predictions made at the close of 2022 did not fully materialize. We had anticipated that high prices for energy, raw materials, and materials would persist into the second half of 2023. However, by the second quarter, energy prices began to drop, and the prices of materials and raw materials stabilized, with some even decreasing.

Looking ahead to 2024, we expect construction and production costs to rise, primarily driven by increasing wage costs. Material and raw material prices are likely to experience more modest, long-term increases. However, it’s important to note that uncertainty remains high, with geopolitical developments potentially causing sharp price hikes in energy, materials, and raw materials.

For clarity, the Troostwijk Index reflects long-term cost developments and aims to filter out cyclical influences or price spikes caused by geopolitical events.

###### Energy, raw materials and materials

Energy prices experienced a steep decline throughout 2023. Despite this, prices are still significantly higher than early 2021 levels. For example, the price per cubic meter of natural gas is more than twice what it was in early 2021, and the price per kWh of electricity remains nearly three times higher (Source: CBS). Short-term declines are unlikely, as the gas now being purchased is considerably more expensive than before, even though the Netherlands has reduced its reliance on Russian gas.

The price of crude steel and other metals fell sharply in early 2023 due to waning global demand, resulting in a 15% decline. However, by the end of 2023, prices began to rise again. While steel prices remain higher than pre-2021 levels (around 37.5%), we anticipate that, with the absence of a strong economic recovery, prices will stabilize or increase slightly in 2024.
The oil price showed considerable volatility in 2023. After a 10% drop in the first half of the year, it surged by 25% in Q3 due to production restrictions by oil-producing nations. Following this peak, prices dropped again, fueled by disappointing export figures from China. With global economic recovery remaining sluggish, we expect continued volatility in oil prices throughout 2024.

As for building materials, 2023 presented a mixed picture. Materials influenced by international competition, like timber, remained relatively stable after substantial price hikes in previous years, while those primarily produced in the Netherlands, such as concrete and cement, saw price increases following the surge in energy and wage costs. Steel products like beams and profiles saw prices decline, but this trend leveled off toward the end of the year.
Looking at 2024, we expect a stable-to-slightly-higher price trend for internationally competitive building materials, while domestic materials may face price pressure due to construction stagnation.

###### Wage costs

Following a substantial wage increase in 2022-2023, wages are expected to rise again in 2024, though at a slightly lower rate. The latest forecast from the CPB suggests a 5.6% increase in collective labor agreement wages for 2024 (down from 6.8% in 2023). Wage demands vary by sector, with the construction industry expecting a substantial increase of around 10% (or even 14% with allowances and extra days off). In other sectors, like Metal & Electrical, wage demands are expected to align more closely with the national average, as their increases in 2022-2023 were already above average.
For the purpose of our index calculations, we’ve assumed a 7% wage increase in construction and a 5.6% increase in other sectors. This wage development will be applied in two stages: half of the increase will be reflected in mid-2024, with the other half coming into effect on January 1, 2025.

###### Uncertainty

The period ahead remains highly uncertain. Critical questions include whether gas supplies will be sufficient during a harsh winter, how the conflict in Ukraine will evolve, and the potential impact of geopolitical tensions between China and the West on raw material prices. Additionally, climate factors, particularly extreme weather events, could influence raw material availability, such as timber production.

In 2023, new home construction dropped sharply, as higher interest rates, economic uncertainty, and declining house prices led to hesitancy among potential buyers. The commercial construction sector also saw reduced activity, contributing to lower construction material prices. While some anticipate a recovery in construction in 2024, the Economic Institute for the Construction Industry forecasts a decline of 1.5%. Any sudden shifts in the economic climate could lead to price increases.

In these volatile times, indexation is more important than ever. The Troostwijk Index is a broad-based indicator and may not reflect specific market trends for particular real estate sectors. Therefore, it's important to stay updated on price developments in specific submarkets, allowing you to adjust your index if needed. If you're unsure about value developments, feel free to contact Troostwijk Research for personalized advice.

The figures presented here offer a forecast of expected price trends for the coming year. To stay informed about actual developments, be sure to check our quarterly updates.

###### Index numbers

As you can see from the tables below, the actual development of construction costs and production costs of business inventory in 2023 has lagged behind our forecast at the end of 2022. For 2024, we will therefore make a correction for the excessive indexation in 2023. This results in a constant annual index figure for construction costs and a slightly higher index figure for the production costs of business inventory. The quarterly index figures show that we do indeed expect an increase in construction costs and production costs for business inventory. As already mentioned above, this is mainly driven by higher wage costs.

###### Forecast annual index figures 

|  | **2023** | **2024** | **%** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Commercial and office buildings | 130.0 | 130.0 | 0% |
| Homes | 128.7 | 128.7 | 0% |
| Company inventory | 126.4 | 126.8 | +0.3% |

###### Forecast quarterly index figures 2024

| | **2023 – IV*** | **2024 – I** | **2024 – II** | **2024 – III** | **2024 – IV** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Commercial and office buildings | 125.2 | 125.3 | 125.4 | 129.7 | 130.0 |
| Homes | 123.3 | 123.6 | 123.9 | 128.3 | 128.7 |
| Company inventory | 123.3 | 124.5 | 125 | 126.4 | 126.8 |

*Definitive

[Link to the original article in Dutch](https://www.troostwijk.nl/nieuws/troostwijk-index-2024/ )


Inisghts & Publications

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